Value Picking : Jio with Reliance or Maro with debt

Jio

Hi ValueGuyz,

Yesterday was a historical day for India, for some it was a day that embarked change in telecom industry & for some it was a day to announce burning & experimenting with a small amount of 1,50,000 Crore /- only.

At Reliance AGM Mr Mukesh Ambani announced Reliance Jio.

A lot of big promises were made about how data is oxygen, and how India is going to move from Gandhi-giri to Data-giri. Blah.. blah .. blah , go read its all over the internet with Trolls of other telecom like this one.

Jio

I think the most important thing that was announced by Mr Ambani was lifetime supply of endless free voice calls either Local or STD Calls. With Jio offering “FREE” voice calls (though data usage for making the calls will be charged), the voice revenues of the industry may get impacted. Do you know that nearly 70% of the Telecom’s revenue are from voice calls.

This is a checkmate for the greatest businesses India has seen like Airtel or Idea. Yes you heard it right.... Its Checkmate.

WHY ??

You might think because of Jio these company will be Maro but Nai dost nai yha ek caveat hai.

These guys are neck deep in debt & I am gonna show you the power of debt n death of so called great Business.

Intelligent Investing & Debt

Dhandha ho ya na ho but loan nai hona chahiye. Having a loan most of the times deteriorate the chances of creating legacy for great businesses.

HOW ?

Let's look at the biggest Property dealer India has ever seen, DLF ( & Yes I call them property dealer )

DLF-B/S

From 2006 ----------------- > 2016


Debt :

From 4,000 Cr ------------ > 27,000 Cr

DLF-Pnl

From 2006 ---------------- > 2016


Profits :

From 400 Cr ------------------- > 550 Cr

While

Sales :

From 1,800 Cr ------------------- > 9,200 Cr

In last 10 years sales almost 5 times ho gayi leking profit wahi ka wahi khada hai.. Meanwhile Interest ki payments 170 Cr se grow kar ke 2600 Cr ho gayi hai.

Before you judge this property dealer let's look at its Stock pricing over years.

DLF-EoD chart

Ask yourself honestly is this property dealer working for shareholders or Bank ?

And this is the largest Property company of India, baakiya ka kya ho rha hoga.. you can give a wild guess

Debt kills....period.

Personal ho ya business long term main Bank hi jeetega.

Intelligent investing should be smart enough to answer debt in the business because it can destroy wealth easily as seen with DLF. DLF has monopolistic business with everything a Value pick should have except running business on steroids ie, with Debt.

& look what is happening, no matter how hard it works it will take maybe another 10 yrs to come back at 2007 level, if its honest & lucky.

Shareholder of DLF might have to wait total 20 years from 2007 go get back original money. Ise kehte hai property dealing

Debt n Airtel & Idea : Sab bhai bhai

These telecom gaints are exactly replicating situations DLF had back in 2008 when property business peaked & starting falling on its face. With Jio giving freebies while these guys barely making end meets with interest payments yet alone meagre profitability.

Raising debt continuously & running business is a norm in telecom industry where these business failed at shareholders end absolutely.

Before I draw any conclusion let's look at wealth creation done by these giants over last 10 yrs.

Airtel-EoD chart
Idea-EoD chart

Shareholder of Airtel n Idea must be banging there heads on wall over last 10 yrs.

Piece of advice for them.... its gonna get ugly with debt rising & profit turning to losses.

I leave this matter of debt upto you now to draw conclusions. For me it is agar yeh bade log kuch nai kar paa rahe to choti companies kya kar lengi if they are under the debt.

I founded ValueGuyz for the purpose of leading the Aam aadmi away from this Loot Lo Mentality of Stock brokers who wants everyone to indulge into Sattebaaji just so that they can mint brokerage while aam aadmi left pondering who made him fool & blaming Stock Markets at the end..

Stay intelligent & be wary of debt or loan. Invest like a valueguy. WE WILL PREVAIL....

Got question ?

regards,

jasmeet singh

Founder & Investor

SEBI Regd.(INH100004951)

Jasmeet Singh

About me :

Currently managing assets of 5 Crore+ & still sleep like a baby every night because Valueguyz makes life simpler.

I am passionate about 3 things in my life Financial System, Fitness & Photography

I got introduced to Financial system through Forex Trading back in 2007 during my 3rd Year of Engineering & It was too complex yet magnificent. Officially I entered Indian Stock Market in early 2008 at the very beginning of Global Financial Crisis, but what the hell did I know for me it was the last semester & time to get serious about my passion ie, Counter Strike

DISCLAIMER

I am currently a registered Research Analyst with SEBI (INH100004951). My writings n research here at www.valueguyz.com are in accordance with SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE BOARD OF INDIA (RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014.